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Week 12 starts with an NFL Thanksgiving game on Thursday. The Detroit Lions will face the Green Bay Packers at home. Thus, here are our betting picks and predictions for the Packers vs Lions game at Ford Field.

According to online sports betting experts, the Lions have been soaring to their most excellent 10-game start (8-2) since 1962, when Don Shula was the defensive coordinator. Not only that, but they have not beaten the Packers in five straight games since the early 1950s when they won eleven consecutive games against the Packers.

Packers vs Lions Prediction

Packers vs Lions Betting Pick – NFL Thanksgiving Game PredictionIn Week 4, the Lions defeated the Packers 34-20 at Lambeau Field; the game was closer than the final score would have you believe. With 284 more yards gained than the Packers in the first half, the Lions took a commanding 27-3 lead into halftime.

There will likely be little to no closeness this time, as well. The odds of favoring the Lions are 7.5 now. Assuming the line goes up to 8, it will be the most extensive spread for Detroit as a favorite vs Green Bay since 1992, when they were beaten despite being 10-point favorites against Brett Favre in his fifth career start.

In Week 4, these two teams met at the line of scrimmage, and Green Bay was utterly outplayed. After being blitzed only twice all game, Jordan Love was pressed on a season-high 49 percent of his dropbacks against Detroit. On offense, that might mean relentless pressure against Love from Aidan Hutchinson and company. It was a feast for the Lions’ four-man rush. Green Bay had 20 dropbacks during that game when Love was under pressure and gained a negative six yards.

Reducing their blitz rate from last year was a critical factor in Detroit’s defensive success early in the season. But that has changed in the past month as the Lions’ defense has gone from having the fifth-lowest blitz rate in the league to having the fifth-highest blitz rate. Since Week 7, their defense has been the worst in the NFL regarding scoring. Also, look at the Lions’ average rush performance in Week 4 before you bet on the NFL during Thanksgiving. It is hard to believe that DC Aaron Glenn would keep up the blitz counts. If it persists, the door may open for Love and Co. to profit from the blitz trend. Regarding pressure, Love has been shorter and more polished over the last month, and Green Bay is among the NFL’s top young quarterback teams. Since Week 7, Detroit’s YAC average has ranked 31st.

NFL Thanksgiving Game Betting Pick

Date: November 23, 2023 at 12:30 PM ET
Location: Ford Field

Bet on the Lions at -7.5

According to sports news coverage insiders, the Lions will control the game from start to finish. Considering Green Bay’s infamously sluggish start, the Lions’ top-tier run game and pass pressure should propel them to victory.

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